Specifically, we found that for every decrease of 1 percent in a president’s approval rating, the president’s party will lose an average of one seat. Our study also found that the Gallup presidential approval rating affects House election outcomes. This suggests that this year’s estimated annual increase in gas prices of a historical high of 61 percent will lead to a loss of 29 House seats for the Democratic Party. Over the entire period, we found that for every increase of 10 percent in gas prices, the president’s party lost, on average, 4.3 seats. The second-highest year of increasing gas prices was 2010 (19 percent) when the president’s party lost 64 seats. In fact, the only two midterm elections where the president’s party gained House seats (19) were during years when gas prices declined.īut when gas prices increased the most during a midterm election year (37 percent in 1974), the president’s party lost 48 seats. In addition to finding that voters blame the presidential party for rising gas prices, we found that voters credit the president’s party when gas prices fall.ĭuring the three midterm elections that experienced the most significant declines in gas prices, the president’s party had its best showings. Since people are reminded virtually every day about the price per gallon of gas at every gasoline station they drive by, voters are likely to be more upset about gas prices than overall rates of inflation. Gasoline prices, however, were found to be highly significant in terms of influencing voters. We were surprised to find that overall price changes as measured by the Consumer Price Index had no measurable impact on midterm House election results. The two we found that we believe will figure most prominently in forecasting this November’s midterm House election results include the price of gasoline and the Gallup presidential approval rankings. Our study identified a number of factors that explain these wide variations in midterm election results. For example, there were losses of more than 50 seats for the president’s party in the midterm elections of 1946, 1958, 1994, and 2010. The magnitude of the losses in some midterms, however, was much higher than the average. The average loss, including the small gains in 19, was 27 seats. Bush, gained a scant eight seats.Įvery other midterm election since 1946 resulted in losses-usually big ones-in House seats for the president’s political party. Four years later, in 2002, the Republicans, under President George W. In 1998, the Democrats, under President Bill Clinton, eked out a small gain of four House seats.

Since 1946, the president’s party has lost seats in every midterm election except in 19. In analyzing the election results for the 19 midterm elections between 1946 to 2018, we found that a sitting president’s political party almost always experiences a net loss in House seats. We used those results to forecast the swing in House seats for the upcoming midterm election in November. Various statistical measures indicate a high degree of accuracy for our model in projecting the results of the 19 midterm elections from 1946 to 2018. This study identified the major socio-economic and political factors that determine the swing of seats by political party during midterm elections for the House of Representatives. In the Senate, both Republicans and Democrats have vulnerable seats.We recently completed a study, “ A Model to Forecast Midterm House Election,” that has been published in Social Science Research Network. The Cook Political Report - an independent, nonpartisan election-analysis newsletter that evaluates which way voters lean in certain areas - rates several key House races as toss-ups, especially for Republicans. But many races will be closely watched to see how the balance will shift in the House. According to Ballotpedia, there are three House races without a Democratic candidate and 39 without a Republican. Not every congressional race is competitive, especially in the House. The Senate has 35 seats up for grabs this year (33 regularly scheduled and two due to special elections), and each and every one of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be voted on as well. A big part of every midterm election is the votes in both houses of the United States Congress. November 6 is Election Day for the 2018 midterms. In the Senate, 35 seats are being voted on all 435 House seats are also included in the midterms. Where Congress stands headed into Election Day.

Midterm house results